March Madness bubble winners and losers: Villanova keeps NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Barely.
When Villanova started its game against DePaul on a 7-0 run, it seemed like the Wildcats would cruise to the second round of the Big East tournament.
But things got scary in Madison Square Garden Wednesday night if you're a Villanova fan.
DePaul, which didn’t win a single Big East game this season, gave Villanova all it could handle for 40 minutes. In the final seconds, the Blue Demons led by two points, with Villanova’s NCAA Tournament hopes hanging in the balance.
Then came the rescue from Justin Moore. The senior guard stepped up with the ball in his hands, drilling a 3-pointer with eight seconds left to give Villanova the lead. It hung on for a one-point victory.
Barely beating DePaul is nothing to gloat about. A case could be made for it being more damaging for Villanova than helpful to its NCAA Tournament case. But in the end, the result is the only thing that matters, and Villanova is still alive. That makes Thursday's game against Marquette even bigger. The Wildcats must win. Come out with a loss, and it likely is another missed tournament.
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So Villanova still has a lot of work to do — as do many other bubble teams hoping to sew up an NCAA Tournament bid in the coming days. With conference tournaments now in full swing and bubble teams playing, here are the winners and losers from Wednesday’s action.
WINNERS
TCU
Let Micah Peavy’s heave from the opposite 3-point line to close the first half summarize how good Wednesday was for TCU.
In a battle between two Big 12 teams trying to gain positioning for the men's NCAA Tournament, the Horned Frogs had everything going for them against Oklahoma, defeating the Sooners 77-70 in the second round of the conference tournament.
Oklahoma scored the first point of the game, but TCU took over the rest of the way, capitalizing on 18 Sooners turnovers that it converted into 20 points. Peavy’s shot just before halftime was a massive momentum shift that Oklahoma could never recover from. TCU had such a dominant game, it didn’t make a field goal in the last six minutes and still comfortably won.
A projected 10-seed in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology prediction, TCU headed into Kansas City in danger of falling into the "last four in" conversation and having to play in Dayton to start the NCAA Tournament. But Wednesday’s win gives the Horned Frogs two wins over the Sooners, as well as a fifth Quad 1 victory.
Wake Forest
Things haven’t been looking great for Wake Forest in recent weeks, so the Demon Deacons couldn’t afford a one-and-done performance in the ACC tournament.
But on Wednesday, Wake Forest showed it is fighting for an NCAA Tournament spot with a wire-to-wire, 72-59 win against Notre Dame. The Demon Deacons jumped out to a quick start, going up 7-0 in less than two minutes and never let the Fighting Irish get control of the game. The contest was still within reach to start the second half, but Notre Dame couldn’t buy a bucket as it shot 5-for-25 in the final 20 minutes, free throws the only thing keeping it in the game. Meanwhile, Wake Forest dominated inside with 38 points in the paint.
There’s still plenty for Wake Forest to do in Washington, D.C., with a big bubble game against Pittsburgh to be played Thursday in the tournament quarterfinals. The winner of that contest likely jumps over the loser in the bubble standings, and with the Demon Deacons among the first four teams projected to miss the tournament, they can’t afford to falter against Pittsburgh.
Colorado State
For some time Wednesday, it looked like Colorado State was in jeopardy of falling out of the projected NCAA Tournament field. San Jose State, a team that went 2-16 in conference, was neck-and-neck with the Rams. If Colorado State managed to lose, it would severely hurt its tournament chances.
Tied with less than five minutes left, Colorado State's offense stepped up when it mattered most, ending the game on a 16-6 run, making its last five shots to get past San Jose State 72-62.
It’s a Quad 4 win, so there was nothing impressive about it. However, given Colorado State had an up-and-down end to the regular season, it needed at least one win in Las Vegas to assure it wouldn’t have to worry about missing the NCAA Tournament. Next is Nevada, so the Rams could improve what seed they get, but rest assured, the Rams will be one of several Mountain West schools to be in the field of 68.
Providence
Providence is just outside the projected NCAA Tournament field, so it’ll take a solid week in New York for the Friars to prove they belong in the bracket.
Consider them off to a good start. Providence easily handled Georgetown in the first round of the Big East tournament, securing an 18-point win. The Friars jumped out to a double-digit lead five minutes into the game and never looked back.
Providence won’t be able to jump any bubble teams with everyone above them winning or yet to play in their conference tournament, but the game of the season is now officially in front of the Friars: they play Creighton on Thursday night. It will be difficult, but Providence did just beat the Bluejays in early February.
A loss Thursday will likely end any NCAA Tournament hopes. A win, and chaos will ensue.
New Mexico
A "last four in" team can’t afford to be bounced in its opening conference tournament game. New Mexico avoided that and left no doubt with a 26-point win over Air Force.
The Lobos avenged a questionable loss to the Falcons just a few weeks ago. At one point in this one, New Mexico was up by 35 points.
New Mexico is safe for now, but it isn’t fully out of the woods when it comes to securing a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Up next is Boise State, a team that swept New Mexico in the regular season. The Lobos can’t afford to lose three games in one season to the Broncos, so add New Mexico to the several teams that need a win on Thursday.
LOSERS
Oklahoma
It wasn’t long ago when Oklahoma was a top 10 team in the country and looked to be a contender in the loaded Big 12. Instead, the Sooners struggled in conference play, and the loss to TCU capped off a 2-6 end to the season that puts them closer to the bubble than they've been all season.
Oklahoma didn’t have a bad day shooting the ball, but possessions ending in turnovers and TCU’s hot shooting start put it down big early and made it too difficult to recover. The Sooners looked to be generating some momentum late in the first half, but the long 3-point heave from Peavy before halftime deflated any chance of winning. The Horned Frogs led by as many as 19 points with less than nine minutes left, and not even the Oklahoma offense getting in rhythm while TCU’s offense went cold was enough to make it a game.
The recent struggles have pushed Oklahoma to the bottom half of the seed line, and by losing to the Horned Frogs twice, it won’t be a surprise to see the Sooners fall down further. By Selection Sunday, Oklahoma could be a 10-seed, and depending on how others do, may be in consideration for a "last four in" spot. That's not what coach Porter Moser envisioned after a 13-1 start to the campaign.